McCain on Social Security: Everything on the Table?
I don’t trust people whose fiscal policy platforms are built around “pledges.” When an elected official says that he/she will never, ever raise taxes on anyone, this shouldn’t be seen as a principled stand– it should be understood as a cop-out, a signal that this particular elected official, when he takes office, will have checked his brain at the door. The first principle of fiscal policy should be that you put all the cards on the table, and face budget difficulties as they arise using tax changes or spending changes tailored to fit the specific budget circumstances you’re facing. No pledges, no vows, just a nice rational deliberative process.
So I was impressed to see presidential candidate John McCain quoted on the New America Foundation’s US Budget Blog as saying that when it comes to fixing Social Security’s long-term funding imbalance,”you’ve got to say, ‘Look, everything is on the table, let’s sit down at the table.’”
Given McCain’s recent tendency to vocally oppose tax increases of any kind, the natural follow-up to a comment like that is “you mean you’re open to increasing the payroll tax?” Since the McCain quote came from a much longer interview with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, I was interested to see whether, in fact, the Trib’s staff asked this follow-up question. And they did, sort of, by asking not whether McCain would support increasing the federal payroll tax rate, but by asking whether he would support a proposal that would increase the annual cap (currently $102,000) on the amount of wages that can be subject to the payroll tax in a given year. Here’s the exchange:
Trib: Do you favor raising the cap?
McCain: Pardon me?
Trib: Do you favor raising the cap?
McCain: No, and I think by doing so, as Sen. Obama wants to do, you are obviously putting a very, very big increased tax on … middle income Americans who filing jointly and in other ways will be paying a very big increase.
So the good news is that McCain isn’t taking a no-taxes pledge on this point. But the bad news is that he’s talking out of both sides of his mouth on this “cards on the table” approach. He tries to appear conciliatory by speaking the language of rational deliberation, then poisons the well by completely mischaracterizing the impact of a relatively tame tax hike on “middle-income Americans.”
In other words, when McCain says “let’s put all the cards on the table,” what he really means is “let’s have an honest discussion of all the ideas I agree with, and tell outright lies about the rest of them.” Is this better than a “no new taxes” pledge? I’m not sure it is. Pretending to be reasonable is arguably even worse than just admitting you’re irrational. The “no new taxes” gang is irrational at best, but at least they’re honest about it.
For more details on why McCain’s statement about raising the cap is wrong, go here.
You can read the whole Tribune-Review interview here.
On Social Security, McCain Redefines "Middle Class"
In an entertaining interview with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review this week, presidential candidate John McCain makes it clear that he won’t fix Social Security through payroll tax hikes. In particular, McCain argues that it’s a lousy idea to increase the cap (currently $102,000) on the amount of any individual’s wages that can be subject to payroll taxes in a given year:
Trib: Do you favor raising the cap?
McCain: Pardon me?
Trib: Do you favor raising the cap?
McCain: No, and I think by doing so, as Sen. Obama wants to do, you are obviously putting a very, very big increased tax on … middle income Americans who filing jointly and in other ways will be paying a very big increase.
McCain’s response here is wrong in two important ways. First, as a CTJ analysis showed a couple of years back, only about 6.5% of Americans would be affected by a proposal that simply eliminates the cap on the federal payroll tax.
But more importantly, McCain’s characterization of Obama’s position on Social Security is flat-out wrong. What Obama has said is that he’d allow the payroll tax to apply to an individual’s wages above $250,000, which is a very different thing from simply removing the cap and taxing wages above $102,000. Here’s the Washington Post’s nice explanation of Obama’s position:
Under current law, income up to $102,000 a year is taxed for Social Security. Obama would create a “doughnut hole” by not imposing new Social Security taxes on income between $102,000 and $250,000. His aides said income exceeding $250,000 would be taxed at a rate of 2 percent to 4 percent, rather than the 6 percent tax that people pay toward Social Security on income below the $102,000 cutoff, which is matched by their employer’s paying a 6 percent tax.
And as a recent CTJ analysis points out, the Obama proposal would only affect 1 percent of Americans– none of whom could be described as “middle class.” As for the alleged “very, very big” tax increase on these middle-class Americans… well, suppose you have a “middle class” friend whose salary was $275,000 (remember, income from sources other than wages don’t count toward the payroll tax, so what matters is each individual’s salary). That means that under Obama’s plan, he would face a tax on his wages exceeding $250,000. His income exceeds $250K by $25,000, so his tax hike would be 2% of $25,000. That would be a $500 tax hike. If this sounds like somebody you know– and if you consider this person “middle class”– then McCain’s characterization seems apt. Otherwise, his description of the Obama plan is screamingly, almost libelously wrong.
The $500 tax hike described above certainly would count as a “very, very big” tax hike for an average middle-income family– but, unfortunately for McCain’s truthiness, there’s simply no way the Obama plan would ever apply to anyone who could reasonably be considered middle-class. Period.
To be perfectly clear about the way the Obama plan would work, a two-earner married couple would not pay more tax just because their combined income exceeded $250,000. Each spouse’s salary must exceed $250K to get hit by the Obama plan. And capital gains, dividends, etc., don’t count toward the $250K: what matters is your salary.
One could charitably attribute McCain’s false statement to fuzziness in his understanding of exactly how the Obama plan would work. One could also say charitably that perhaps “middle class” has a very different meaning in Arizona than in the rest of the nation. But a more realistic interpretation would be that candidate McCain is willfully misrepresenting the truth in the hope that scare tactics are still a good substitute for honest policy debates.