Baseline Confusion
When the Tax Policy Center reported last month that Senators Obama’s and McCain’s tax proposals would both reduce federal revenues by trillions of dollars over the coming decade, both campaigns complained that TPC was using the wrong baseline to measure revenue changes. Instead of measuring revenue against current law, they asserted, analysts should assess the plans against “current policy.” In fact, the choice of baselines is in some sense irrelevant as a gauge of our fiscal problems.