AIG: Ben Blinked
Just when we thought the bailouts were over, just when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson insisted failing financial institutions would, like Lehman Brothers, sink or swim on their own, along comes AIG.
Make no mistake, the Wall Street financiers called Bernanke and Paulson’s bluff. After the two men said Washington would not throw taxpayer money into the AIG pot, the big money guys went all in, insisting they would not rescue the rapidly-sinking financial services giant without cash from Washington.
Bad Markets and Deficits
Crumbling financial markets mean more awful news for governments already reeling from an economic slowdown and mortgage foreclosures. The only glimmer of optimism is that the sluggish revenues and rising spending that are around the corner should only be transitory. Assuming the markets and the economy rebound, these fiscal shocks will be a fading memory after a few years.
That won’t relieve short-term budget pressures. Nor will it make life any easier for a newly-elected President who will take office in the face of a deficit that CBO projected at nearly half a trillion dollars even before the markets cratered this week. But there is a big difference between the kind of one-time budget shocks caused by crashing financial markets and the trillions in long-term unfunded obligations that Washington is happily ignoring. That slow wasting of the nation’s financial underpinnings doesn’t grab headlines, but is far more dangerous.
If the current market correction ends up looking more or less like our last three big financial hiccups in 1987, 1990, and 2001-2003, capital gains tax collections will plunge for a year or two, but then bounce back.
After the market’s crash in 1987, these revenues fell 19 percent in 1988, flat-lined for a year, and then, as the stock market sagged again, dropped another 27 percent by 1991. However, through the rest of the 1990’s, capital gains taxes grew strongly as the market boomed. By 2000, Washington was collecting more than $120 billion in capital gains taxes, nearly four times what it got a decade before.
The pattern held after the tech bubble burst in 2001. Taxes on gains plunged by 59 percent through 2003, but then, with the market, they recovered. By 2005, revenues had climbed 50 percent, even though the top rate on gains had been cut to 15 percent.
Some states did not fare so well. California saw taxes on capital gains and stock options plunge by nearly $10 billion after the dot.com bust. And while those revenues have rebounded, the state has never quite gotten back on its fiscal feet.
Of course, some things are different this time, even for Washington. Thanks to the government’s unprecedented bailouts of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, and now AIG, Washington is on the hook for tens of billions and perhaps hundreds of billions more in spending that nobody foresaw even a couple of months ago.
It is not possible to put a dollar amount on those new obligations, which is very frightening. If the government ends up nationalizing more failing firms, the fiscal cost could become far more worrisome. But like spending for natural disasters, these bailouts are likely to be one-off expenditures. The government, thankfully, can buy AIG’s toxic assets only once.
Don’t get me wrong. This is all a very, very bad business. But unlike the future prospects for, say Medicare, this grim news has the potential to improve fairly soon.
The Next Financial Bailout
My sources at the Federal Reserve and in the financial markets increasingly expect that Washington is going to have to put up hundreds of billions of dollars more to directly recapitalize troubled banks.
Such a step would be in addition to the $700 billion authorized by Congress last week and could require new congressional appropriations. It would put even greater pressure on the short-term budget deficit and add to uncertainty over the total cost of cleaning up the financial system mess. It could also require new federal legislation, setting up yet another bruising battle on Capitol Hill.
Data Matter
Last night, at one of those ubiquitous Washington cocktail receptions, I ran into an old friend who, for more than two decades, has been a policy analyst at a federal agency. Her hair-raising story, familiar to many inside the Beltway, is worth retelling as a new president prepares to take office.
My friend runs a modest research shop within the bowels of a huge agency. Her job, to oversimplify a bit, is to take a hard look at billions of dollars of federal programs to determine what works and what doesn’t.
VATs Next?
Is it time for the U.S. to consider a Value Added Tax? More and more tax experts think so. But the politics isn’t yet getting easier.
One problem: While more specialists are joining the VAT fan club, they can’t agree on what to do with the money. TPC’s Len Burman has proposed a VAT to supplement the income tax and pay for health care. Michael Graetz, once a top tax aide to the senior George Bush, would use one to get most Americans off the income tax. At the TPC/Tax Analysts tax reform conference on Dec. 5, Pam Olson, who was a top tax aide to the today’s President Bush, endorsed the levy as a way to buy down corporate tax rates. Once the tab comes in for the trillions of dollars Washington is spending to stimulate the economy and bail out the financial markets, I am certain others will propose a VAT simply to help pay the bills.
The Bush Deficit: "This is Going to be a Challenge"
To paraphrase the oily Captain Renault of Casablanca fame, we in Washington are shocked, shocked to find that deficits are going on here. To listen to the cries of outrage and dismay, one might think the Bush Administration’s latest projection of nearly $400 billion in red ink for the fiscal year ending on Sept. 30, and almost $500 billion for next year was unexpected.
The Budget Deficit is Getting Worse
The deficit is about to get a lot worse, a lot faster.
At least that’s the latest projection by the Congressional Budget Office. In the past six months, Washington’s medium-term fiscal health has deteriorated markedly, and what CBO once projected to be a small surplus beginning in 2012 has now morphed into annual deficits in excess of $100 billion as far as the eye can see (to borrow a phrase).
New IRS Guidelines for Tax Filers in 2007
The 2007 tax season will get down as planned. How, due to the recent changes the IRS will not be able to action tax returns of tax filers who will be taking (1) state and local sales tax discounts, (2) higher education tutorship and fees discounts and (3) educator expenses, until early February.
Unsurprising, January is the slowest time of the tax season with maximum six percent of the tax returns filed in the first 2 weeks; last year, around 6.7 million returns were filed along January 27. Statistics for 2005 shows that almost 930,000 taxpayers took any of the three discounts by February 1. This year the IRS counters around 136 million tax returns.
According to IRS Commissioner, Mark W. Everson, “the IRS is taking a number of steps to insure taxpayers have the right information on these discounts when they prepare and file their tax returns.” The IRS advances those who may be desirable for these discounts to file electronically. “They will get their refund faster by e-file. Even more significantly, e-file will great come down the chances of making an fault compared to claiming the discounts on the paper 1040″, said Everson.
The primary forms – Forms 1040, 1040A and Schedule A&B that are already in count do not include the dicounts that were approved by the copulation in December. To insure a smoothen sailing, the IRS has created a special effect of Publication 600. Tax filers and tax professionals can get the updated information on the late lawmaking by visiting irs.gov. In addition, the IRS will carry on a special posting of Publication 600 which will be sent out to over 6 million taxpayers. For those taxpayers who mean to e-file, the IRS has informed the tax software to admit the three new discounts.
The sales tax discounts which was took by around 11.2 million tax returns last year goes for to nine states” Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming. To claim the sales tax discounts taxpayers must fill line 5 Schedule A (Form 1040) by coming in ST on the line to the left of line 5 to show that you are exacting the sales tax discounts alternatively of the deduction for state and local income tax.
The higher education planning (Hope credit and Lifetime Learning credits) was filed by around 4.7 million taxpayers last year. The credit which is up to $4000 for tutionship and fees paid to post-secondary institutions cannot be claimed on Form 1040A. It must be claimed on Form 1040 on line 23.
The planning for education expenses, which allows educators (particularly teachers) to deduce equal to $250 on personal expenses on school issues, was took by 3.5 taxpayers in 2005. The discounts can be took by filling line 23 on Form 1040.
IRS reports increased tax refunds, more electronic filing
The Internal Revenue Service reported Wednesday that the average refund grew to $2,436 for tax returns filed through last Friday. That’s a 9% increase from the average $2,230 check sent to early filers last year.
The IRS also said it’s seen an uptick in tax returns filed electronically, with strong growth among individuals using tax software to file from home.
The nation’s tax collectors estimate that, for the first time, more than half the tax returns filed by individual and family tax returns will arrive electronically.
“It’s fast, easy and you get refunds in half the time,” said IRS Commissioner Mark Everson.
Tax refunds tend to be higher during the early part of the filing season, as individuals expecting a check act quickly to claim their money.
This year’s growing refunds can be partly pegged to tax changes that took effect last year, which increased tax benefits for low-income families, said Kathy Burlison, director of tax implementation at H&R Block.
Those changes include an increase in the amount of child tax credit that can be claimed as a tax refund. The old law let families claim 10% of their earned income over $10,500, but a change now lets families claim 15% of earned income over $10,750.
Low-income families also benefited from a small increase in the earned income tax credit, a benefit aimed at lifting low-wage workers out of poverty.
“That’s certainly meaning bigger refunds,” she said.
Burlison said other tax law changes could be contributing to the trend. Taxpayers who live in states without income taxes got a new deduction for state sales taxes, and parents and students saw a deduction for tuition and fees increase.
A tax refund in the spring means a taxpayer overpaid throughout the previous year. Financial planners counsel taxpayers who get big refunds to make adjustments that let them get that money sooner.
“In general, it’s not a good idea to make an interest free loan to the government or to anybody else,” said Alan Straus, an attorney and certified public accountant in Manhattan.
“Most people would do better off adjusting their withholdings so that they take home more every week and don’t wind up with a huge refund at the end of the year.”
For others, waiting to get that tax refund in the spring might be the best way to save money.
“Everybody has different levels of discipline,” said Peggy Cabaniss, a certified financial planner in Orinda, Calif.
Taxpayers who got a big refund or a big bill who want to get closer to their true tax liability next year can change the amount of taxes withheld from their paychecks to either increase or decrease the amount withheld from their paychecks.
Constantly changing tax laws can make it difficult to anticipate what next year’s tax return will look like, Cabaniss said. She recommended taxpayers ask their tax professionals to get a forecast for the coming year.
“The tax laws are changing every year,” she said. “All of our finances and our taxes are getting more and more complicated, so it’s requiring more preplanning and more work,” she said.
Source:IRS.Gov
Community Property
If you are married and your domicile (permanent home to which you intend to return) is in one of the following states, your military pay is subject to community property laws of that state: Arizona, California, Idaho, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin. See 1.6 for community property reporting rules.